GRIM ECONOMIC FORECAST – AT 10:55 A.M. ET:   Forecast for a recession next year, election year.  From Reuters: 

LONDON (Reuters) - The outlook for the global economy next year is darkening, with a U.S. recession and China becoming the first major emerging market to slash interest rates to zero both potential scenarios, according to Citi.

As the U.S. economy enters its seventh year of expansion following the 2008-09 crisis, the probability of recession will reach 65 percent, Citi's rates strategists wrote in their 2016 outlook published late on Tuesday. A rapid flattening of the bond yield curve towards inversion would be an key warning sign.

"The cumulative probability of U.S. recession reaches 65 percent next year," Citi's rates strategists wrote in their 2016 outlook published late on Tuesday. "Curve inversion will likely come more quickly than the consensus thinks."

COMMENT:  An election-year recession would clearly favor the Republicans, unless they have self-destructed by then.  It might even favor Trump, who'd be seen as a tough, practical businessman.

But it would hurt the country badly.  Despite our "recovery" tens of millions of Americans are still living on the margin, with lesser jobs than they had before and no savings.

I've always thought the "recovery" was vastly exaggerated by the administration and a compliant media.  We'll learn next year.

December 2, 2015